It doesn’t take a lot of analysis to figure out which girls basketball team will reign in Division I in the state tournament that begins this week.

Phoenix St. Mary’s is one of the best teams in the country, let alone the state, and only a perfect game by, say, Gilbert Highland or maybe Phoenix Pinnacle would offer a chance for an upset.

But what about the girls teams in divisions II through IV?

In Division II, Phoenix Thunderbird coach Barry Ringel says that Prescott Valley Bradshaw Mountain is a legitimate No. 1 seed. Ringel’s Chiefs, seeded fourth, lost to the Bears in the Section II championship game last week.

Thunderbird is in the top half of the bracket, and could wind up meeting Bradshaw Mountain again in the semifinals on Feb. 21. Thunderbird, with a first-round bye along with the other top eight seeds, will open play on Friday (Feb. 15) against the winner of Wednesday night’s (Feb. 13) opener between No. 20 Laveen Betty H. Fairfax and No. 13 Tucson Canyon del Oro.

Bradshaw Mountain, meanwhile, will meet either No. 17 Maricopa or No. 16 Scottsdale Notre Dame Prep on Friday.

No. 8 Scottsdale Saguaro, perhaps better than its seeding, could have a shot at Bradshaw Mountain in the quarterfinals on Feb. 19. The Sabercats would have to get past either  No. 21 Buckeye Youngker, No. 14 Prescott or No. 5 Peoria Liberty to make that happen.

Defending state champion Seton Catholic heads the bottom part of the bracket with the No. 2 overall seed. But the Lady Sentinels suffered a big setback recently when guard Anne Marie Holter went down with a knee injury. If any team can rise to the occasion, it is Seton, coached by Karen Self.

No. 3 Flagstaff, led by coach Tyrone Johnson, and No. 6 Tucson Flowing Wells, led by Michael Perkins, also could figure into the mix.

In Division III, fans need to fasten their seat belts, as usual. Another wild ride awaits.

Winslow, continuing the winning tradition that allowed former coach Don Petranovich to win more than 700 games and several state titles, is the No. 1 seed. The lady Bulldogs defeated a strong Sanders Valley team that had been atop the ratings most of the season in the Section I tournament.

The top eight are full of Native American teams from the reservations in northeast Arizona, and they all are so evenly matched that any team is capable of winning at any time. That’s what makes the tournament so exciting. Their fans are extremely passionate.

Keep an eye out for No. 2 Sanders Valley, No. 3 Fort Defiance Window Rock, No. 4 Tuba City, No. 5 Whiteriver Alchesay and No. 6 Page.

Chandler Valley Christian, a powerhouse in the old Class 2A, is seeded No. 7 but will have a much more challenging road to travel in Division III.

In Division IV, all roads lead to Tim’s Toyota Center in Prescott Valley, site of most of the tournament, including the championship game on Feb. 23.

Scottsdale Salt River and Tempe Prep are the top two seeds , and deservedly so. The two have met three times, with Salt River taking all three. If point guard Kishan Cooper is at the top of her game, Salt River will be very difficult to defeat.

Other possible contenders are No. 3 Duncan, No. 4 Joseph City, No. 5 Fort Thomas  and No. 7 Tucson Desert Christian.